Lula and Petro have the chance of a lifetime to save the Amazon. Can they combine creativity and realpolitik to pull it off?

The rainforest countries of Brazil and Colombia have the best chance in a generation to pull the Amazon back from the abyss as it hosts three of the world’s most important environmental talks in less than a year.

As they continue, their leaders – the president of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, and the conservative and controversial president of Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva – will offer different visions for the future of the Amazon, and the world’s way to zero.

But these leftist leaders need to reconcile differing views on oil exploration and the pace of change if they want to hold onto environmental priorities. In this, there is real hope, but also reasons for doubt.

For those looking for a solution to the global polycrisis, all roads lead from Cali in the west of Colombia to Belém in the north of Brazil. Cop16, the world conference on biodiversity, begins in Cali next week, followed by the G20 summit of major economies in Rio de Janeiro in mid-November, where Lula will bet on three points of justice environment: energy transition, sustainable development and conflict. against hunger. A year later, he will follow on a bigger stage: the Cop30 climate conference in Belém.

Both Lula and Petro have shown leadership in reducing deforestation. Between 2022 and 2023, Brazil saw a 36% decrease and Colombia 49%, according to the World Resources Institute. Both are committed to deforestation by 2030. And both are inspired by their smart and committed environmentalists: Marina Silva from Brazil and Susana Muhamad from Colombia.

The two leaders recognized the important role indigenous people play in conserving biodiversity and carbon storage. And they agree on the dire threat posed by the climate crisis, the need for a strong international response and the importance of environmental justice – the view that climate stabilization goes hand in hand with addressing it is not enough.

But Petro and Lula are very different when it comes to the use of oil and gas. Petro has been a world leader in getting Colombia into an oil-free agreement, refusing to sign any new oil exploration licenses, and trying – so far without success – to persuade other Amazonian communities to ban the extraction of fossil fuels from the rainforest. On the other hand, Lula wants Brazil to expand production to become the fourth largest oil producer in the world, and has given his support for the national oil company Petrobras to explore the waters at the mouth of Amazon, despite the opposition of his environment minister.

Marcio Astrini of the Brazilian Climate Observatory says: “Whether in position, commitments or actions, the Colombian government is ahead of the Brazilian government” on fossil fuels. “It is clear that it is Petro’s government that is challenging Lula to be more ambitious on climate issues, not the other way around.”

Political facts and personal history help to explain the different opinions. Petro, the 64-year-old former mayor of Bogotá and a former member of the M-19 terrorist organization, leads the Humane Colombia party, which was founded only in 2011 and is based on anti-imperialism and the search for peace . a country wracked by civil war for decades. Lula cut his political teeth as a spokesman for the steel workers’ union and founded the Labor party in the 1980s. Now in his third term as president, he has proven himself to be a pragmatic leader, whose state-building ideas tend to lean towards the 20th century, with a heavy emphasis on fuel production and large resources.

The gravity of the climate crisis should bring them closer together, says Natalie Unterstell, a former Brazilian government adviser who now works for the Latin American and Caribbean Climate Finance Group: “This it’s the last chance. Colombia is unique. But I don’t see that as a threat, but as an encouragement for Lula to take action.”

The growing scale of the problem in Brazil was highlighted at the United Nations General Assembly last month when Lula described the Amazon’s worst drought in 45 years, the worst flooding in the south from 1941 and the fires that spread across the country, destroying 5. million hectares in August. To solve this problem, he said the world should work together. He said: “We have done a lot, but we know there is more to be done.

Lula is focused on building international alliances and securing global funding for nature and the climate, while supporting projects that are often opposed at home – such as a new railway and an upgraded Amazon corridor. On the other hand, sometimes Petro seems to be moving forward so much that he finds himself isolated. His progress on the oil-free and natural debt pact has so far not been replicated by other Amazonian countries.

Oscar Soria, Argentine director of the Common Initiative, a global environmental think-tank, says: “You are like an experienced chef with a Michelin star – you he has ability and dignity, and he always serves. raise the bar (like oil contracts) that leaves analysts stunned. Even though Petro is like a great musician…

Soria believes that a true political combination of Lula and Petro is necessary if South America wants to restore the spirit of trust and confidence that existed at the 1992 World Summit in Rio de Janeiro. Together they need to get more money from rich nations. “If both Polices can continue this matter, there is hope for progress for another ten years,” Soria predicted.

But how much power do they have? At home, both leaders have faced hostile congresses and seen their approval ratings plummet. Petro is in full conflict with the legislature and has threatened to pass the national budget by presidential decree. Although there have been some gains, many of his high-profile goals and climates have been thwarted.

On a global scale, where rich countries tend to have more influence, Lula and Petro’s room to maneuver is limited. But observers praised the diplomatic skills of Muhamad, who will serve as president of Cop16. “He has a very smart approach,” says Laura Rico, campaign director for the activist group Avaaz. In the first talks, Muhamad pushed the issues of indigenous land and promoted the idea that nature and climate need to be treated together.

They will need international partners. The pressure of the world market, the legacy of colonialism and weak governance have made South America a byword for natural degradation. The continent has lost an estimated 95% of its wildlife population since 1970. It has suffered from the worst deforestation and is often home to the largest number of conservationists. those who were killed. Now, the Amazon – the largest forest in the world – is engulfed in fire and drought.

“We are living in a climate emergency. Intentions to reduce emissions must be increased on a large scale,” says climate scientist and Amazon resident Carlos Nobre, who was one of the first people to warn that the Amazon was being destroyed. of a glory that will never come back. He urges the leaders of Brazil and Colombia to work together: “We hope that both of them will welcome the Police with good leadership.”